A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area

Jane M. Binner*, Rakesh Bissoondeeal, Andrew W. Mullineux

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1257-1266
Number of pages10
JournalApplied Economics
Volume37
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2005

Bibliographical note

This is an electronic version of an article published in Binner, Jane M.; Bissoondeeal, Rakesh and Mullineux, Andrew W. (2005) A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area. Applied Economics, 37 (11). pp. 1257-1266. Applied Economics is available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00036840500082133

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