A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area

Jane M. Binner, Rakesh Bissoondeeal, Andrew W. Mullineux

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1257-1266
Number of pages10
JournalApplied Economics
Volume37
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2005

Fingerprint

Inflation
Euro area
Composite leading indicator
Divisia
Join
Kalman filter
Monetary aggregates
Economic research
Turning point

Bibliographical note

This is an electronic version of an article published in Binner, Jane M.; Bissoondeeal, Rakesh and Mullineux, Andrew W. (2005) A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area. Applied Economics, 37 (11). pp. 1257-1266. Applied Economics is available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00036840500082133

Cite this

Binner, Jane M. ; Bissoondeeal, Rakesh ; Mullineux, Andrew W. / A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area. In: Applied Economics. 2005 ; Vol. 37, No. 11. pp. 1257-1266.
@article{9ad54722ce364ccc9214cd7134c0e638,
title = "A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area",
abstract = "We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. {\circledC} 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.",
author = "Binner, {Jane M.} and Rakesh Bissoondeeal and Mullineux, {Andrew W.}",
note = "This is an electronic version of an article published in Binner, Jane M.; Bissoondeeal, Rakesh and Mullineux, Andrew W. (2005) A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area. Applied Economics, 37 (11). pp. 1257-1266. Applied Economics is available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00036840500082133",
year = "2005",
month = "6",
doi = "10.1080/00036840500082133",
language = "English",
volume = "37",
pages = "1257--1266",
journal = "Applied Economics",
issn = "0003-6846",
publisher = "Routledge",
number = "11",

}

A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area. / Binner, Jane M.; Bissoondeeal, Rakesh; Mullineux, Andrew W.

In: Applied Economics, Vol. 37, No. 11, 06.2005, p. 1257-1266.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area

AU - Binner, Jane M.

AU - Bissoondeeal, Rakesh

AU - Mullineux, Andrew W.

N1 - This is an electronic version of an article published in Binner, Jane M.; Bissoondeeal, Rakesh and Mullineux, Andrew W. (2005) A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area. Applied Economics, 37 (11). pp. 1257-1266. Applied Economics is available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00036840500082133

PY - 2005/6

Y1 - 2005/6

N2 - We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

AB - We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=22744456269&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00036840500082133

U2 - 10.1080/00036840500082133

DO - 10.1080/00036840500082133

M3 - Article

VL - 37

SP - 1257

EP - 1266

JO - Applied Economics

JF - Applied Economics

SN - 0003-6846

IS - 11

ER -