An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios

Karen Jackson; Oleksandr Shepotylo

doi:10.1111/twec.13049

An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios

Karen Jackson, Oleksandr Shepotylo

Economics, Finance and Entrepreneurship

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the welfare implications of the differential disintegration of the EU. Using a structural gravity approach, our estimates suggest that the rest of the EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU compared to a disorderly Brexit. At the same time, neighbouring high-income and middle-income countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Norway, are expected to benefit from EU disintegration under some scenarios because trade would be diverted from EU countries.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2-20
Number of pages	19
Journal	World Economy
Volume	44
Issue number	1
Early online date	9 Oct 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13049
Publication status	Published - Jan 2021

Bibliographical note

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Jackson, K. and Shepotylo, O. (2020), An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios. The World Economy. Accepted Author Manuscript, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13049. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

Keywords

Brexit
EU
gravity model
trade policy

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10.1111/twec.13049

An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Jackson, K. and Shepotylo, O. (2020), An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios. The World Economy. Accepted Author Manuscript, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13049. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
Accepted author manuscript, 11.7 MB

Cite this

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An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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