An Integrated Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Framework for Assessing Transit-Oriented Development Potential of Regional Railway Stations: Evidence from Thailand

Transit-oriented development (TOD) assessment tools were designed largely for dense metropolitan settings and transfer poorly to the dispersed, low-density catchments of intercity railway stations in developing economies, where indicators presupposing high-intensity urban form lose discriminating power and imported criterion weights obscure which dimensions actually drive potential. This study develops an integrated fuzzy multi-criteria framework and applies it to the pre-qualified principal stations of Thailand’s regional railway network. A ten-member expert panel screened a literature-derived indicator pool through a two-round Fuzzy Delphi Method, scoring rules were formalized with a Mamdani-type Fuzzy Logic Method, and importance weights were derived with the Spherical Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, which preserves expert hesitancy. Density and destination accessibility emerged as the dominant dimensions, with measures of activity concentration carrying the largest global weights. The weighted indicator set was converted into a 100-point assessment guideline and applied network-wide, separating high-, medium-, and low-potential station areas, with regional-center stations ranked highest. Sensitivity analysis shows the ranking is stable under alternative screening thresholds, weighting methods, and panel compositions, so the index is best read as an instrument for screening development readiness rather than a measure of realized TOD performance. Railway operators and local planning authorities can use it to prioritize station-area investment, to sequence interventions by potential level, and to align comprehensive city plans with rail investment programs in regional contexts.