Causality from real stock returns to real activity: evidence of regime-dependence

Angelos Kanas, Christos Ioannidis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We find strong evidence of regime switching in the relation between real stock prices and real activity for the UK over the period 1946–2002. Furthermore, there is evidence that the causality pattern from real stock returns to the IP growth rate varies across regimes: causality exists only in the low stock market volatility regime, while it does not exist in the high stock market volatility regime. As the latter largely refers to the period of inflation targeting in the UK, this finding uncovers the importance of monetary policy in insulating the real economy from unexpected financial market effects during periods of financial instability. Additional evidence of regime-dependence is uncovered using impulse response analysis. Finally, the US stock market is found to exercise significant regime-independent effects on the UK relation as a whole as well as on the future UK IP growth. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)180-197
Number of pages18
JournalInternational Journal of Finance and Economics
Volume15
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2010

Keywords

  • regime switching
  • stock returns
  • UK
  • real activity
  • regime-dependent causality

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