Changing labour migration flows after Brexit: An analysis of UK survey and administrative data

Alessandro Cusimano; Chiara Paola Donegani; Stephen McKay

doi:10.1177/09596801241268291

Changing labour migration flows after Brexit: An analysis of UK survey and administrative data

Alessandro Cusimano, Chiara Paola Donegani, Stephen McKay

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Following ‘Brexit’, the UK leaving the EU, we analyse the effects of changes in the legal framework on EU residents and compare them with UK citizens, employing a difference-in-differences framework. The research focuses on several dependent variables, including labour supply and wages, self-employment rates, and changes in industry, using the Annual Population Survey (APS) data 2012−2022 in the UK (itself based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS)), National Insurance Number registrations, and visas issued. The evidence from our analysis on EU post-Brexit migration towards the UK, together with the observed overall increase in rates of (non-EU) net migration, shows rebalancing between EU and non-EU groups. Effects are strongest at the lower-skilled end of the labour market. However, wages for UK natives and EU migrants did not change with respect to each other, controlling for occupation, industry, and other factors.

Original language	English
Number of pages	22
Journal	European Journal of Industrial Relations
Early online date	2 Aug 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/09596801241268291
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 2 Aug 2024

Bibliographical note

Copyright © Authors 2024. This accepted manuscript version is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/].

Keywords

migrants
post-Brexit labour market
labour market outcomes
low-skilled jobs
substitution effect

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10.1177/09596801241268291

An analysis of UK survey and administrative data
Copyright © Authors 2024. This accepted manuscript version is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/].
Accepted author manuscript, 168 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Cite this

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title = "Changing labour migration flows after Brexit: An analysis of UK survey and administrative data",

abstract = "Following {\textquoteleft}Brexit{\textquoteright}, the UK leaving the EU, we analyse the effects of changes in the legal framework on EU residents and compare them with UK citizens, employing a difference-in-differences framework. The research focuses on several dependent variables, including labour supply and wages, self-employment rates, and changes in industry, using the Annual Population Survey (APS) data 2012−2022 in the UK (itself based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS)), National Insurance Number registrations, and visas issued. The evidence from our analysis on EU post-Brexit migration towards the UK, together with the observed overall increase in rates of (non-EU) net migration, shows rebalancing between EU and non-EU groups. Effects are strongest at the lower-skilled end of the labour market. However, wages for UK natives and EU migrants did not change with respect to each other, controlling for occupation, industry, and other factors.",

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AU - Donegani, Chiara Paola

AU - McKay, Stephen

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AB - Following ‘Brexit’, the UK leaving the EU, we analyse the effects of changes in the legal framework on EU residents and compare them with UK citizens, employing a difference-in-differences framework. The research focuses on several dependent variables, including labour supply and wages, self-employment rates, and changes in industry, using the Annual Population Survey (APS) data 2012−2022 in the UK (itself based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS)), National Insurance Number registrations, and visas issued. The evidence from our analysis on EU post-Brexit migration towards the UK, together with the observed overall increase in rates of (non-EU) net migration, shows rebalancing between EU and non-EU groups. Effects are strongest at the lower-skilled end of the labour market. However, wages for UK natives and EU migrants did not change with respect to each other, controlling for occupation, industry, and other factors.

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Changing labour migration flows after Brexit: An analysis of UK survey and administrative data

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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