Financial Distress and Tail Risk

Jairaj Gupta, Sajid Chaudhry

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

Considering the declining number of bankruptcy filings, and increasing out-of-court negotiations and debt reorganisations, we argue in favour of penalising firms for becoming sufficiently close to bankruptcy that they have questionable going-concern status. Thus, we propose a definition of financial distress contingent upon firms’ earnings, financial expenses, market value and operating cash flow. Subsequently, we investigate the role of tail risk measures (Value-at-risk and Expected Shortfall) in aggravating likelihood of financial distress. Our results show that longer horizon (three- and five-year) tail risk measures contributes positively toward firms’ likelihood of experiencing financial distress.
Original languageEnglish
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2018

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Financial distress
Tail risk
Bankruptcy
Risk measures
Market value
Reorganization
Expected shortfall
Operating cash flows
Expenses
Debt
Going concern
Value at risk

Bibliographical note

© 2018 The Authors

Cite this

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Financial Distress and Tail Risk. / Gupta, Jairaj; Chaudhry, Sajid.

2018.

Research output: Working paper

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