'Friend or foe' and decision making initiative in complex conflict environments

Mathew Zuparic*, Sergiy Shelyag, Maia Angelova, Ye Zhu, Alexander Kalloniatis

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


We present a novel mathematical model of two adversarial forces in the vicinity of a noncombatant population in order to explore the impact of each force pursuing specific decision- making strategies. Each force has the opportunity to draw support by enabling the decision- making initiative of the population, in tension with maintaining tactical and organisational effectiveness over their adversary. Each dynamic model component of force, population and decision-making, is defined by the archetypal Lanchester, Lotka-Volterra and Kuramoto-Sakaguchi models, with feedback between each component adding heterogeneity. Developing a scheme where cultural factors determine decision-making strategies for each force, this work highlights the parametric and topological factors that influence favourable results in a non-linear system where physical outcomes are highly dependent on the non-physical and cognitive nature of each force's intended strategy.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0281169
Number of pages27
JournalPLoS ONE
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 6 Feb 2023


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