Geopolitics on a Shoestring? Unpacking the EU’s Geopolitical External Assistance to Central Asia

The paper examines how the European Union's (EU) increasingly emphasised geopolitical ambitions are reflected in the practice of its external assistance policy. An analysis of EU documents around various policy initiatives and funding instruments reveals that in the Commission's understanding, geopolitical external assistance increases EU market power, is well resourced financially, focuses on strategic sectors that create long-term dependencies and downplays normative considerations. We examine how these characteristics actually play out in the EU's post-2021 external funding for Central Asia. There is indeed an emphasis on market power, and a shift in sectors is also evident, away from those associated with poverty reduction towards ones like green and digital technologies. Normative issues are relatively absent. However, a stark reduction in resources glaringly contradicts a more geopolitical approach. The EU argues that this shortfall will be more than compensated by private sector investments, funded by national and multilateral development banks. Yet this is by no means guaranteed, and involving actors like the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in leveraging private investments creates additional dilemmas. The findings highlight the challenges that the EU faces in becoming a more geopolitical actor in the context of scarce financial resources and competing priorities.