Impact of compressor failures on gas transmission network capability

National Grid, the gas operator in the United Kingdom, has experienced challenges in evaluating the capability of its gas transmission network to maintain function in the event of risks particularly to withstand the impact of compressor failures. We propose a mathematical programming model to support the operator in dealing with the problem. Several solution techniques are developed to solve the various versions of the problem efficiently. In the case of little data on compressor failure, an uncertainty theory is applied to solve this problem if the compressor failures are independent; while a robust optimisation technique is developed to solve it when they are not. Otherwise, when there are data on compressor failure, Monte Carlo simulation is applied to find the expected capability of the gas transmission network. Computational experiments, carried out on a case study at National Grid, demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed model and solution techniques. A further analysis is performed to determine the impact of compressor failures and suggest efficient maintenance policies for National Grid.