J-shaped relationship between habitual coffee consumption and 10-year (2002–2012) cardiovascular disease incidence: the ATTICA study

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to evaluate the association between coffee consumption and 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in the ATTICA study, and whether this is modified by the presence or absence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) at baseline. Methods: During 2001–2002, 3042 healthy adults (1514 men and 1528 women) living in the greater area of Athens were voluntarily recruited to the ATTICA study. In 2011–2012, the 10-year follow-up was performed in 2583 participants (15% of the participants were lost to follow-up). Coffee consumption was assessed by a validated food-frequency questionnaire at baseline (abstention, low, moderate, heavy). Incidence of fatal or non-fatal CVD event was recorded using WHO-ICD-10 criteria and MetS was defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment panel III (revised) criteria. Results: Overall, after controlling for potential CVD risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed a J-shaped association between daily coffee drinking and the risk for a first CVD event in a 10-year period. Particularly, the odds ratio for low (<150 ml/day), moderate (150–250 ml/day) and heavy coffee consumption (>250 ml/day), compared to abstention, were 0.44 (95% CI 0.29–0.68), 0.49 (95% CI 0.27–0.92) and 2.48 (95% CI 1.56–1.93), respectively. This inverse association was also verified among participants without MetS at baseline, but not among participants with the MetS. Conclusions: These data support the protective effect of drinking moderate quantities of coffee (equivalent to approximately 1–2 cups daily) against CVD incidents. This protective effect was only significant for participants without MetS at baseline.