TY - GEN
T1 - Modelling COVID-19 with a SIR Variant Using Real-World Data: A Case Study in Brazil
AU - Leto, Daniel
AU - Wanner, Elizabeth
AU - Alamino, Roberto
AU - Webber, Thais
PY - 2025/4/19
Y1 - 2025/4/19
N2 - This study utilises a SIR model variant to analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Brazil. The model incorporates compartments for different population states and optimises infection and loss of immunity rates to achieve a closer fit to real-world data, improving the characterisation of diseases’ behaviours and informing public health strategies. Data from the Our World in Data portal, including information on vaccines, variants’ dominance, and new developed cases, is used to calibrate the model by minimising the quadratic error between its projections and actual case numbers. Key parameters include infection rates, loss of immunity, vaccination, and the duration of infection and exposure. The study addresses mathematical challenges and discusses non-mathematical variables that influence outcomes. The goal is to explain infection dynamics in Brazil over time by determining infection and loss of immunity rates through simulations, considering various scenarios, including the impact of vaccination.
AB - This study utilises a SIR model variant to analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Brazil. The model incorporates compartments for different population states and optimises infection and loss of immunity rates to achieve a closer fit to real-world data, improving the characterisation of diseases’ behaviours and informing public health strategies. Data from the Our World in Data portal, including information on vaccines, variants’ dominance, and new developed cases, is used to calibrate the model by minimising the quadratic error between its projections and actual case numbers. Key parameters include infection rates, loss of immunity, vaccination, and the duration of infection and exposure. The study addresses mathematical challenges and discusses non-mathematical variables that influence outcomes. The goal is to explain infection dynamics in Brazil over time by determining infection and loss of immunity rates through simulations, considering various scenarios, including the impact of vaccination.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Single-objective optimisation
KW - SIR Modelling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105003630102&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-87908-1_3
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-031-87908-1_3
DO - 10.1007/978-3-031-87908-1_3
M3 - Conference publication
AN - SCOPUS:105003630102
SN - 9783031879074
T3 - Lecture Notes in Computer Science (LNCS)
SP - 34
EP - 51
BT - From Data to Models and Back
A2 - Czekster, Ricardo M.
A2 - Milazzo, Paolo
PB - Springer
T2 - 12th International Symposium on From Data Models and Back, DataMod 2024
Y2 - 4 November 2024 through 5 November 2024
ER -