Multiple Linear Regression Models for Predicting Surface Damage Due to Repeated Dynamic Loading on Submerged Asphalt Pavement

Saeed Fauzia , Mujib Rahman*, Maher Mahmood

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Published conference outputConference publication

Abstract

Asphalt surface damage due to water pumping from moving traffic is underexplored. A laboratory test has been developed to simulate the impact of moving traffic on submerged surfaces. In total 36 tests were conducted on Hot Rolled Asphalt (HRA), open-graded Stone Mastic Asphalt (SMA) and Porous Asphalt (PA). The specimens were submerged in shallow water while 5 kN repeated loading was applied at 5 and 10 Hz frequencies until failure. It was observed that irrespective of surface type, cracking, and rutting occurs simultaneously, although their magnitudes were different on different types of surfaces. The experimental data were then used to develop multi-input deterioration prediction models using regression analysis. The experimental parameters such as asphalt surface type, aggregate size, weather conditions, void contents, load magnitude and load frequencies were used as model inputs. The measured cracking and rutting were used to compare with the predicted cracking and rutting. The models yield 84 and 71.6% correlation with measured rutting and cracking respectively. Furthermore, combined distress (cracking and rutting) model for all HRA and SMA variations was developed and found 52 and 39% correlation respectively. The low correlation was believed to be due to the measurement difficulty of narrow cracks during testing. Despite this, the models showed promising results for overall distress prediction and with further development, it could be used as a screening tool to evaluate the performance of asphalt surfaces when subject to both prolong rain and traffic loading.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 9th International Conference on Maintenance and Rehabilitation of Pavements—Mairepav9
PublisherSpringer
Pages975-985
Number of pages11
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-030-48679-2
ISBN (Print)78-3-030-48678-5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 20 Jun 2020
Event9th International Conference on Maintenance and Rehabilitation of Pavements—Mairepav9 - Zurich, Switzerland
Duration: 1 Jul 20203 Jul 2020

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Civil Engineering
Volume76
ISSN (Print)2366-2557
ISSN (Electronic)2366-2565

Conference

Conference9th International Conference on Maintenance and Rehabilitation of Pavements—Mairepav9
CountrySwitzerland
CityZurich
Period1/07/203/07/20

Keywords

  • Asphalt surface damage
  • Cracking
  • Deterioration prediction model
  • Linear regression
  • Rutting

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