TY - JOUR
T1 - Navigating LDC Graduation
T2 - Modelling the impact of RCEP and CPTPP on Bangladesh
AU - Raihan, Selim
AU - Khorana, Sangeeta
AU - Uddin, Mahtab
PY - 2022/8/29
Y1 - 2022/8/29
N2 - Bangladesh will graduate from the LDC list by 2026. Currently, Bangladesh's exports of readymade garments (RMG) benefit from international support measures which allow preferential trade in major export destinations, such as the EU. After graduation, Bangladesh's exports, particularly RMG, will face competition from mega trading blocs, such as RCEP and CPTPP. This article employs the GTAP model to estimate the impact of Bangladesh's graduation from the LDC category and how mega FTAs are likely to affect Bangladesh's exports and potential welfare. The model also considers the scenarios of either United States or the UK or both joining the CPTPP. The model results show that Bangladesh's graduation will lead to a fall in GDP and RMG exports by 1.53% and 11.8%, respectively. The negative impact is magnified when we factor in the mega-trading blocs. Further negative impacts are observed when either United States or the UK or both join the CPTPP.
AB - Bangladesh will graduate from the LDC list by 2026. Currently, Bangladesh's exports of readymade garments (RMG) benefit from international support measures which allow preferential trade in major export destinations, such as the EU. After graduation, Bangladesh's exports, particularly RMG, will face competition from mega trading blocs, such as RCEP and CPTPP. This article employs the GTAP model to estimate the impact of Bangladesh's graduation from the LDC category and how mega FTAs are likely to affect Bangladesh's exports and potential welfare. The model also considers the scenarios of either United States or the UK or both joining the CPTPP. The model results show that Bangladesh's graduation will lead to a fall in GDP and RMG exports by 1.53% and 11.8%, respectively. The negative impact is magnified when we factor in the mega-trading blocs. Further negative impacts are observed when either United States or the UK or both join the CPTPP.
KW - Bangladesh
KW - CGE model
KW - CPTPP
KW - GTAP
KW - LDC graduation
KW - mega trading blocs
KW - RCEP
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85137054059&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13547860.2022.2114227
U2 - 10.1080/13547860.2022.2114227
DO - 10.1080/13547860.2022.2114227
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85137054059
SN - 1354-7860
JO - Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy
JF - Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy
ER -