Nothing new under the sun: The NIST primer on “Probability and Likelihood Ratios” gives a misleading negative portrayal of the likelihood-ratio framework

Geoffrey Stewart Morrison

doi:10.1016/j.fsisyn.2026.100677

Nothing new under the sun: The NIST primer on “Probability and Likelihood Ratios” gives a misleading negative portrayal of the likelihood-ratio framework

Geoffrey Stewart Morrison

Aston Institute for Forensic Linguistics

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Abstract

In March 2025, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) published a series of primers designed to provide judges and attorneys with a neutral source of information on foundational forensic-science principles. Unfortunately, the primer on “Probability and Likelihood Ratios” gives a misleading negative portrayal of the likelihood-ratio framework. This perspectives paper refutes that misleading portrayal.

Original language	English
Article number	100677
Number of pages	15
Journal	Forensic Science International: Synergy
Volume	12
Early online date	7 May 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsisyn.2026.100677
Publication status	Published - 1 Jun 2026

Bibliographical note

Copyright © 2026 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc/4.0/).

Keywords

Interpretation
Likelihood ratio
NIST
Primer
Probability

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10.1016/j.fsisyn.2026.100677Licence: CC BY-NC 4.0

GS Morrison_NIST primer on Probability and Likelihood Rations_gives a misleading negative portrayal of the likelihood-ratio framework
Copyright © 2026 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Final published version, 1.72 MBLicence: CC BY-NC 4.0

Cite this

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abstract = "In March 2025, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) published a series of primers designed to provide judges and attorneys with a neutral source of information on foundational forensic-science principles. Unfortunately, the primer on “Probability and Likelihood Ratios” gives a misleading negative portrayal of the likelihood-ratio framework. This perspectives paper refutes that misleading portrayal.",

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Nothing new under the sun: The NIST primer on “Probability and Likelihood Ratios” gives a misleading negative portrayal of the likelihood-ratio framework

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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