Perceived environmental uncertainty in scenario planning

Efstathios Tapinos

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Scenarioplanning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices of scenarioplanning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenarioplanning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmentaluncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenarioplanning researchers, which suggests that PerceivedEnvironmentalUncertainty (PEU) influences the micro-external as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper reviews the most dominant theories on scenarioplanning process and PEU, developing three propositions for the practice of scenarioplanning process. Furthermore, it shows how these propositions can be integrated in the scenarioplanning process in order to improve the development of strategy.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)338-345
Number of pages8
JournalFutures
Volume44
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2012

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