Predicting new venture survival and growth: does the fog lift?

Alex Coad, Julian S. Frankish, Richard Roberts, David Storey

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This paper investigates whether new venture performance becomes easier to predict as the venture ages: does the fog lift? To address this question we primarily draw upon a theoretical framework, initially formulated in a managerial context by Levinthal (Adm Sci Q 36(3):397–420, 1991) that sees new venture sales as a random walk but survival being determined by the stock of available resources (proxied by size). We derive theoretical predictions that are tested with a 10-year cohort of 6579 UK new ventures in the UK. We observe that our ability to predict firm growth deteriorates in the years after entry—in terms of the selection environment, the ‘fog’ seems to thicken. However, our survival predictions improve with time—implying that the ‘fog’ does lift.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)217-241
JournalSmall Business Economics
Issue number1
Early online date17 Mar 2016
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2016

Bibliographical note

© The Author(s) 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.


Dive into the research topics of 'Predicting new venture survival and growth: does the fog lift?'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this