Presenter’s Paradox in Bullwhip Effect: A Cognitive Approach

Past research has extensively examined the role of information as a critical managerial tool for mitigating the bullwhip effect in supply chains. However, both academic studies and practical experience reveal that firms cannot fully eliminate this phenomenon, particularly in complex environments, even when information is readily accessible. Despite its significance, the behavioural aspects of information utilisation and supply chain complexity remain underexplored. Using the lens of Presenter’s Paradox, this study offers a behavioural analysis of information use in supply chains characterised by varying levels of complexity and managerial cognitive propensities. A quasi-experimental design was adopted to investigate how individuals make decisions under differing conditions of information availability and supply chain complexity, as well as the causal impact of cognitive propensity on these decisions. The study employed two full-factorial experiments, comparing settings of information presence (low vs. high), supply chain complexity (low vs. high), and managerial cognitive propensity (rational vs. intuitive thinking systems). With a sample of 387 participants, the findings reveal that while information use effectively mitigates the bullwhip effect in simpler supply chain designs, this advantage diminishes in more complex environments. The results further highlight significant variations in managers’ performance in mitigating the bullwhip effect based on their propensity to rely on intuitive or rational thinking systems. This research provides behavioural insights into cognitive differences among supply chain managers and advances the field of behavioural operations by exploring the role of diverse managerial groups in complex supply chain environments. It develops a process theory grounded in behavioural decision-making principles, proposing new research directions with testable hypotheses to describe conditional decision-making heuristics.