Probabilistic adaptive model predictive power pinch analysis (PoPA) energy management approach to uncertainty

Nyong-bassey Bassey Etim, Damian Giaouris, Haris Patsios, Shady Gadoue, Athanasios I. Papadopoulos, Panos Seferlis, Spyros Voutetakis, Simira Papadopoulou

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This paper proposes a probabilistic power pinch analysis (PoPA) approach based on Monte–Carlo simulation (MCS)
for energy management of hybrid energy systems uncertainty. The systems power grand composite curve is formulated with the
chance constraint method to consider load stochasticity. In a predictive control horizon, the power grand composite curve is
shaped based on the pinch analysis approach. The robust energy management strategy effected in a control horizon is inferred
from the likelihood of a bounded predicted power grand composite curve, violating the pinch. Furthermore, the response of the
system using the energy management strategies (EMS) of the proposed method is evaluated against the day-ahead (DA) and
adaptive power pinch strategy.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4288-4292
JournalThe Journal of Engineering
Issue number17
Early online date4 Apr 2019
Publication statusPublished - 17 Jun 2019

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This is an open access article published by the IET under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License


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