Reliability-based calibration for a mechanics-based fatigue cracking design procedure

Yared H. Dinegdae*, Björn Birgisson

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Most pavement design procedures incorporate reliability to account for design inputs-associated uncertainty and variability effect on predicted performance. The load and resistance factor design (LRFD) procedure, which delivers economical section while considering design inputs variability separately, has been recognised as an effective tool to incorporate reliability into design procedures. This paper presents a new reliability-based calibration in LRFD format for a mechanics-based fatigue cracking analysis framework. This paper employs a two-component reliability analysis methodology that utilises a central composite design-based response surface approach and a first-order reliability method. The reliability calibration was achieved based on a number of field pavement sections that have well-documented performance history and high-quality field and laboratory data. The effectiveness of the developed LRFD procedure was evaluated by performing pavement designs of various target reliabilities and design conditions. The result shows an excellent agreement between the target and actual reliabilities. Furthermore, it is clear from the results that more design features need to be included in the reliability calibration to minimise the deviation of the actual reliability from the target reliability.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)529-546
Number of pages18
JournalRoad Materials and Pavement Design
Issue number3
Early online date15 Oct 2015
Publication statusPublished - 2016


  • CCD
  • fatigue cracking
  • FORM
  • LRFD
  • pavement design
  • response surface


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