UK bioenergy policies and implications for global land use change

Bioenergy is central to UK decarbonisation policy, yet its reliance on imported biomass and crop-based biofuels raises concerns about land use change (LUC) and indirect land use change (ILUC) in supplier countries. This study provides a data-driven, ex-post assessment of land use implications associated with two UK bioenergy policy pathways: forestry-derived biomass supported by the Contract for Difference (CfD), and 1st generation biofuels supplied under the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO). Import data for 2015–2022 were linked to forestry biomass productivity and country-specific crop yields to estimate direct land use footprints in major supplier countries. Wider ILUC-consistent signals were then assessed using observed land use, production and trade trends from 2000 to 2022, with particular focus on the US and Brazil. Results show that UK-bound forestry-derived biomass was mainly associated with land footprints in the US, Canada, Latvia and Estonia, while UK-bound 1st generation biofuel land demand became increasingly concentrated in the US and Brazil by 2022. Sensitivity analysis showed that lower productivity assumptions increased estimated land requirements, but did not alter the main supplier-country patterns. Overall, UK bioenergy imports represented a small share of total land use in major supplier countries. The study found no persistent national-scale ILUC signal detected in the US or Brazil. The findings suggest that ex-post land use monitoring can complement model-based ILUC assessment and improve the evidence base for bioenergy sustainability policy.