Uncertainty analysis of life cycle assessment of asphalt surfacings

Ahmed Abed, Diana Eliza Godoi Bizarro, Luis Neves, Tony Parry, Elisabeth Keijzer, Bjorn Kalman, Ana Jimenez Del Barco Carrion, Konstantinos Mantalovas, Gabriella Buttitta, Davide Lo Presti, Gordon Airey

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of asphalt pavements are associated with significant uncertainty resulting from variability in the quantity and impact of individual components, the quality of data for each component, and variability of asphalt durability. This study presents a framework to quantify and incorporate the uncertainty of LCA and asphalt durability data into LCA of asphalt surfacings. The suggested framework includes: estimating the uncertainty of asphalt production processes by the pedigree matrix method, conducting a deterministic LCA, applying Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to estimate the probability density functions (PDFs) of the considered impacts using the uncertainty data, deterministic solution, and asphalt durability. This framework was applied to six asphalt mixtures; the results show that there is significant uncertainty in the processes that contribute to the environmental impacts. They also showed that considering asphalt durability and its uncertainty is critical and can significantly change the results and interpretation of LCA.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages20
JournalRoad Materials and Pavement Design
Early online date21 Apr 2023
Publication statusPublished - 21 Apr 2023

Bibliographical note

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Road Materials and Pavement Design on 21/04/23, available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/14680629.2023.2199882
The author accepted manuscript is available under a CC-BY-NC-ND license.


  • Civil and Structural Engineering


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