TY - JOUR
T1 - A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area
AU - Binner, Jane M.
AU - Bissoondeeal, Rakesh
AU - Mullineux, Andrew W.
N1 - This is an electronic version of an article published in Binner, Jane M.; Bissoondeeal, Rakesh and Mullineux, Andrew W. (2005) A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area. Applied Economics, 37 (11). pp. 1257-1266. Applied Economics is available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00036840500082133
PY - 2005/6
Y1 - 2005/6
N2 - We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.
AB - We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=22744456269&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00036840500082133
U2 - 10.1080/00036840500082133
DO - 10.1080/00036840500082133
M3 - Article
SN - 0003-6846
VL - 37
SP - 1257
EP - 1266
JO - Applied Economics
JF - Applied Economics
IS - 11
ER -