Exchange rate forecasting using a combined parametric and nonparametric self-organising modelling approach

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Abstract

Financial prediction has attracted a lot of interest due to the financial implications that the accurate prediction of financial markets can have. A variety of data driven modellingapproaches have been applied but their performance has produced mixed results. In this study we apply both parametric (neural networks with active neurons) and nonparametric (analog complexing) self-organisingmodelling methods for the daily prediction of the exchangerate market. We also propose acombinedapproach where the parametric and nonparametricself-organising methods are combined sequentially, exploiting the advantages of the individual methods with the aim of improving their performance. The combined method is found to produce promising results and to outperform the individual methods when tested with two exchangerates: the American Dollar and the Deutche Mark against the British Pound.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)12001-12011
Number of pages11
JournalExpert Systems with Applications
Volume36
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2009

    Keywords

  • neural networks with active neurons, forecasting, exchange rates, GMDH

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