An anatomy of the impact of COVID-19 on the global and intra-Commonwealth trade in goods

Sangeeta Khorana, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, Salamat Ali

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This article employs gravity modeling to examine the effect of COVID-19 on global and intra-Commonwealth trade. It uses bilateral monthly exports, number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and the stringency of measures. The main novelty is the use of price indices as proxies for multilateral resistance terms, which allow us to identify, supply, and demand effects of COVID-19 on bilateral trade. The incidence of COVID-19 impacts Commonwealth trade flows, the effect varies with the development level. High numbers of COVID-19 cases, including deaths, in low-income importers reduced Commonwealth exports unlike high-income importers that show higher exports. The incidence of COVID in an exporters' neighbouring countries impacted trade and restrictions in high-income countries increased Commonwealth trade. Short-term trends project a negative change in both exports and imports of Commonwealth countries.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)550-579
Number of pages30
JournalReview of International Economics
Issue number2
Early online date4 Oct 2022
Publication statusPublished - May 2023

Bibliographical note

Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Review of International Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Funding Information:
We acknowledge funding from the Commonwealth Secretariat for this research. We would like to thank the anonymous referees and the editors for their helpful comments and suggestions. Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso also grateful to the financial support received from Grant PID2020‐114646RB‐C42 funded by MCIN‐AEI/ 10.13039 / 501100011033 and from projects project UJI‐B2020‐57 (University Jaume I).


  • COVID-19
  • Commonwealth countries
  • gravity modelling
  • international trade


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