This article employs gravity modeling to examine the effect of COVID-19 on global and intra-Commonwealth trade. It uses bilateral monthly exports, number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and the stringency of measures. The main novelty is the use of price indices as proxies for multilateral resistance terms, which allow us to identify, supply, and demand effects of COVID-19 on bilateral trade. The incidence of COVID-19 impacts Commonwealth trade flows, the effect varies with the development level. High numbers of COVID-19 cases, including deaths, in low-income importers reduced Commonwealth exports unlike high-income importers that show higher exports. The incidence of COVID in an exporters' neighbouring countries impacted trade and restrictions in high-income countries increased Commonwealth trade. Short-term trends project a negative change in both exports and imports of Commonwealth countries.
|Number of pages||30|
|Journal||Review of International Economics|
|Early online date||4 Oct 2022|
|Publication status||Published - May 2023|
Bibliographical noteCopyright © 2022 The Authors. Review of International Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
We acknowledge funding from the Commonwealth Secretariat for this research. We would like to thank the anonymous referees and the editors for their helpful comments and suggestions. Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso also grateful to the financial support received from Grant PID2020‐114646RB‐C42 funded by MCIN‐AEI/ 10.13039 / 501100011033 and from projects project UJI‐B2020‐57 (University Jaume I).
- Commonwealth countries
- gravity modelling
- international trade