TY - JOUR
T1 - An early warning indicator for monitoring infectious animal diseases and its application in the case of a sheep pox epidemic
AU - Malesios, C.
AU - Kostoulas, P.
AU - Dadousis, K.
AU - Demiris, N.
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - We describe an early warning indicator for monitoring infectious diseases. The approach is illustrated with data from a major sheep pox epidemic, which occurred in the Evros prefecture of Greece, from August 2013 until the end of 2014. We present the epidemic data and identify factors affecting this major epidemic using a suitable methodological framework for the sequential analysis of such outbreaks. Environmental conditions and seasonality affect the spread of the epidemic: autumn seems to enhance disease occurrence and higher average temperatures facilitate disease spread. The on-line prediction of the disease potential is investigated through an early warning system that is based on the probability of the disease going extinct. The temporal stability of this indicator is extensively explored.
AB - We describe an early warning indicator for monitoring infectious diseases. The approach is illustrated with data from a major sheep pox epidemic, which occurred in the Evros prefecture of Greece, from August 2013 until the end of 2014. We present the epidemic data and identify factors affecting this major epidemic using a suitable methodological framework for the sequential analysis of such outbreaks. Environmental conditions and seasonality affect the spread of the epidemic: autumn seems to enhance disease occurrence and higher average temperatures facilitate disease spread. The on-line prediction of the disease potential is investigated through an early warning system that is based on the probability of the disease going extinct. The temporal stability of this indicator is extensively explored.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84988599196&partnerID=MN8TOARS
UR - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00477-016-1316-5
U2 - 10.1007/s00477-016-1316-5
DO - 10.1007/s00477-016-1316-5
M3 - Article
SN - 1436-3240
VL - 31
SP - 329
EP - 337
JO - Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment
JF - Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment
IS - 2
ER -