Credibility theory-based available transfer capability assessment

Yanan Zheng*, Jin Yang, Zhaoguang Hu, Ming Zhou, Gengyin Li

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Since the development of large scale power grid interconnections and power markets, research on available transfer capability (ATC) has attracted great attention. The challenges for accurate assessment of ATC originate from the numerous uncertainties in electricity generation, transmission, distribution and utilization sectors. Power system uncertainties can be mainly described as two types: randomness and fuzziness. However, the traditional transmission reliability margin (TRM) approach only considers randomness. Based on credibility theory, this paper firstly built models of generators, transmission lines and loads according to their features of both randomness and fuzziness. Then a random fuzzy simulation is applied, along with a novel method proposed for ATC assessment, in which both randomness and fuzziness are considered. The bootstrap method and multi-core parallel computing technique are introduced to enhance the processing speed. By implementing simulation for the IEEE-30-bus system and a real-life system located in Northwest China, the viability of the models and the proposed method is verified.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)6059-6078
Number of pages20
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 18 Jun 2015

Bibliographical note

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


  • available transfer capability
  • bootstrap method
  • vredibility theory
  • random fuzzy simulation


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