Epidemiological impact of waning immunization on a vaccinated population

Ewa Grela; Michael Stich; Amit K Chattopadhyay

doi:10.1140/epjb/e2018-90136-3

Epidemiological impact of waning immunization on a vaccinated population

Ewa Grela, Michael Stich, Amit K Chattopadhyay

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

This is an epidemiological SIRV model based study that is de-
signed to analyze the impact of vaccination in containing infection spread, in
a 4-tiered population compartment comprised of susceptible, infected, recov-
ered and vaccinated agents. While many models assume a lifelong protection
through vaccination, we focus on the impact of waning immunization due to
conversion of vaccinated and recovered agents back to susceptible ones. Two
asymptotic states exist, the \disease-free equilibrium" and the \endemic equi-
librium" and we express the transitions between these states as function of the
vaccination and conversion rates and using the basic reproduction number. We
nd that the vaccination of newborns and adults have dierent consequences
on controlling an epidemic. Also, a decaying disease protection within the re-
covered sub-population is not sucient to trigger an epidemic on the linear
level. We perform simulations for a parameter set modelling a disease with
waning immunization like pertussis. For a diusively coupled population, a
transition to the endemic state can proceed via the propagation of a traveling
infection wave, described successfully within a Fisher-Kolmogorov framework.

Original language	English
Article number	267
Journal	European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems
Volume	91
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2018-90136-3
Publication status	Published - 1 Nov 2018

Bibliographical note

© The Author(s) 2018. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://doi.org/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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10.1140/epjb/e2018-90136-3Licence: CC BY 3.0

Epidemiological impact of waning immunization on a vaccinated population
© The Author(s) 2018. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://doi.org/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Final published version, 998 KBLicence: CC BY 3.0

https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.02956

Cite this

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title = "Epidemiological impact of waning immunization on a vaccinated population",

abstract = "This is an epidemiological SIRV model based study that is de-signed to analyze the impact of vaccination in containing infection spread, ina 4-tiered population compartment comprised of susceptible, infected, recov-ered and vaccinated agents. While many models assume a lifelong protectionthrough vaccination, we focus on the impact of waning immunization due toconversion of vaccinated and recovered agents back to susceptible ones. Twoasymptotic states exist, the \disease-free equilibrium{"} and the \endemic equi-librium{"} and we express the transitions between these states as function of thevaccination and conversion rates and using the basic reproduction number. Wend that the vaccination of newborns and adults have dierent consequenceson controlling an epidemic. Also, a decaying disease protection within the re-covered sub-population is not sucient to trigger an epidemic on the linearlevel. We perform simulations for a parameter set modelling a disease withwaning immunization like pertussis. For a diusively coupled population, atransition to the endemic state can proceed via the propagation of a travelinginfection wave, described successfully within a Fisher-Kolmogorov framework.",

author = "Ewa Grela and Michael Stich and Chattopadhyay, {Amit K}",

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N2 - This is an epidemiological SIRV model based study that is de-signed to analyze the impact of vaccination in containing infection spread, ina 4-tiered population compartment comprised of susceptible, infected, recov-ered and vaccinated agents. While many models assume a lifelong protectionthrough vaccination, we focus on the impact of waning immunization due toconversion of vaccinated and recovered agents back to susceptible ones. Twoasymptotic states exist, the \disease-free equilibrium" and the \endemic equi-librium" and we express the transitions between these states as function of thevaccination and conversion rates and using the basic reproduction number. Wend that the vaccination of newborns and adults have dierent consequenceson controlling an epidemic. Also, a decaying disease protection within the re-covered sub-population is not sucient to trigger an epidemic on the linearlevel. We perform simulations for a parameter set modelling a disease withwaning immunization like pertussis. For a diusively coupled population, atransition to the endemic state can proceed via the propagation of a travelinginfection wave, described successfully within a Fisher-Kolmogorov framework.

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Epidemiological impact of waning immunization on a vaccinated population

Abstract

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