Predictable non-linearities in U.S. inflation

Jane M. Binner*, C. Thomas Elger, Birger Nilsson, Jonathan A. Tepper

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This paper compares the out-of-sample inflation forecasting performance of two non-linear models; a neural network and a Markov switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. We find that predictable non-linearities in inflation are best accounted for by the MS-AR model.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)323-328
Number of pages6
JournalEconomics Letters
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2006

Bibliographical note

© 2006, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International


  • Inflation forecasting
  • Markov switching models
  • Recurrent neural networks


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