Project time risk analysis through simulation

Prasanta K. Dey, Stephen O. Ogunlana

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


An inherent weakness in the management of large scale projects is the failure to achieve the scheduled completion date. When projects are planned with the objective of time achievement, the initial planning plays a vital role in the successful achievement of project deadlines. Cost and quality are additional priorities when such projects are being executed. This article proposes a methodology for achieving time duration of a project through risk analysis with the application of a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodology is demonstrated using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline construction project.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)24-32
Number of pages9
JournalCost Engineering
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2001


  • management
  • large scale
  • projects
  • failure
  • scheduled completion date
  • time achievement
  • project deadlines
  • cost
  • quality
  • risk analysis
  • Monte Carlo simulation technique
  • cross-country petroleum pipeline construction project


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