Impact of electric vehicles on carbon emissions in Great Britain

This work evaluates carbon emissions of passenger vehicles in Great Britain, considering estimated electric vehicle market penetration until 2050. A MATLAB model was developed based on national data of vehicle sales and licensed vehicles by model – petrol, diesel, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and fully electric battery electric vehicles (BEVs) – average annual mileage, and carbon intensity of electricity generation. The model includes several considerations, such as vehicle survival rate, mileage decay by vehicle age, battery and charging efficiencies, and corrections to reflect real-world driving. The results show a continuous annual decline of carbon emissions from passenger vehicles, reaching 97.9% decrease from 2020 levels at the end of the evaluated period, driven by efficient battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and cleaner electricity grid mix. By 2030 electric vehicles are predicted to account for half of the fleet, but carbon emissions from electricity generation to their charge will be less than 3% of the total. By 2045 carbon emissions from electricity production to charge BEVs and PHEVs will be the largest share of the total, but it will represent only 3.6% of the total 2020 level. Cumulative carbon emissions from electricity production to BEVs and PHEVs will be 4.8% of the total by 2050, even considering the ban of petrol and diesel cars.